FEB 18: Annual guessing game

FEBRUARY 18, 2017 | FLORIDA & ARIZONA – Prediction time for fans and prognosticators as spring training begins for 2017. Baseball Prospectus (BP) has among the most knowledgeable baseball people. BP’s crunching of the numbers leads their experts to believe the following teams are most likely to win their respective divisions in 2017.

American League
East – Boston Red Sox
Central – Cleveland Indians
West – Houston Astros

National League
East – New York Mets
Central – Chicago Cubs
West – Los Angeles Dodgers

It’ll be fun to see what happens. But how well have Baseball Prospectus’ predictions fared? Let’s look back. Here are BP’s 1998 predictions, and whether they were correct or not:

American League
New York Yankees – CORRECT
Cleveland Indians – CORRECT
Seattle Mariners – WRONG (Texas)

National League
East – Atlanta Braves – CORRECT
Central – Houston Astros – CORRECT
West – LA Dodgers – WRONG (San Diego)

Here’s a look at the favored teams from 1999 and how then fared.

American League
East – New York Yankees – CORRECT
Central – Cleveland Indians – CORRECT
West – Texas Rangers – CORRECT

National League
East – Atlanta Braves – CORRECT
Central – Houston Astros – CORRECT
West – LA Dodgers – WRONG (Diamondbacks)

Overall, Baseball Prospectus did very well.

A STORY FROM FEB 15 IN BASEBALL HISTORY – BASEBALL PROSPECTUS PICKS NL DIVISION WINNERS FOR 2018

SPRING TRAINING 2018 IS UNDERWAY IN FLORIDA AND ARIZONA. THE NL DIVISION WINNER PREDICTIONS ARE COMING OUT TOO. Among the most eagerly awaited are the predictions from Baseball Prospectus (BP). Check out their in-depth analysis of every team and player in baseball. Here’s who BP predicts will win the National League divisions in 2018.

NL PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
EASTWashington Nationals
CENTRALChicago Cubs
WEST – Los Angeles Dodgers

How accurate was BP last year? As it turned, pretty accurate. Below are the teams Baseball Prospectus picked to win the National League Divisions in 2017 and who actually won (See Feb 13, 2018 story for AL 2017 predictions):

NL PREDICTIONS FOR 2017 
EASTWashington Nationals (CORRECT)
CENTRAL Chicago Cubs (CORRECT)
WEST Los Angeles Dodgers (CORRECT)

It’a quite remarkable that Baseball Prospectus batted 1000 in correctly predicting all six MLB division winners in 2017.

Contributing Sources:
Baseball Prospectus, February 3, 2018
Baseball Reference

Feb 13 – AL predictions

FEBRUARY 13, 2018: SPRING TRAINING 2018 IS GETTING UNDERWAY IN FLORIDA AND ARIZONA. THE PREDICTIONS ARE COMING OUT TOO. Here’s who Baseball Prospectus (BP) thinks will win the AL Divisions in 2018.

AL PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
EAST – New York Yankees
CENTRALCleveland Indians
WEST – Houston Astros

How accurate was BP last year? As it turned, pretty accurate. Below are the teams Baseball Prospectus picked to win the American League Divisions in 2017 and who actually won:

AMERICAN LEAGUE PREDICTIONS FOR 2017 
EASTBoston Red Sox (CORRECT)
CENTRAL Cleveland Indians (CORRECT)
WEST Houston Astros (CORRECT)

BP batted 1000 predicting AL Division winners in 2017. Tomorrow we’ll look at how well BP did with the National League.

Contributing Sources:
Baseball Prospectus, February 3, 2018
https://www.baseball-reference.com/

Feb 14: So hard to predict

FEBRUARY 14, 2013 | FLORIDA & ARIZONA – It being mid February, 2013, spring training was starting all over Florida and Arizona, so too were the predictions. Below are BleacherReport.com‘s predictions for the 2013 regular season. How accurate were they? Not very:

BleacherReport.com 2013 Predictions
American League
MVP: PREDICTION: Albert Pujols ACTUAL: Miguel Cabrera
Cy Young: PREDICTION: Chris Sale ACTUAL: Max Scherzer
ROY: PREDICTION: Dylan Bundy ACTUAL: Will Myers

National League
MVP: PREDICTION: Bryce Harper ACTUAL: Andrew McCutchen
Cy Young: PREDICTION: Cliff Lee ACTUAL: Clayton Kershaw 
ROY: PREDICTION: Kolten Wong ACTUAL: Jose Fernandez

Not a single prediction was right. Individual award predictions are probably more difficult than team predictions because you never know how an individual will react. But it’s fun watching.

Contributing Sources:
BleacherReport 2014 MVP, CY and ROY award predictions 
Rookie of the year award winners 
MVP & Cy Young award winners